Hdb Resale Prices Rises 26 4Q2024 97 Across Year

According to data released by HDB on Jan 24, the resale prices of HDB flats saw a quarterly increase of 2.6% in 4Q2024, making it the 19th consecutive quarter of price growth in the resale market. This brings the total price increase to 9.7% for the year, marking a significant increase compared to the 4.9% growth registered in 2023.

The rise in resale prices for the last quarter moderated slightly from the previous quarter, where there was a 2.7% increase. SRI’s head of research and data analytics, Mohan Sandrasegeran, attributes the robust price growth throughout 2024 to the limited supply of flats reaching their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) during the year.

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Sandrasegeran further explains that the tight supply has created upward pressure on prices, especially for newer and larger flats, such as five-room and executive units, which are in demand for growing families.

Among the different flat types in the HDB resale market, the average price of five-room flats saw the highest growth in 4Q2024, increasing 2.2% q-o-q to $754,097. Resale prices of four-room flats also saw a similar increase of 2.2% q-o-q to $652,544 in the same quarter.

The Central Area saw the highest increase in prices, growing 25.6% q-o-q, followed by Toa Payoh (12.1%), Tampines (6.9%), Bishan (6.7%), and Bedok (6.1%), according to Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at OrangeTee Group. In total, about 285 HDB resale flats were sold for $1 million or more in the last quarter of 2024, bringing the total number of million-dollar transactions to 1,035 for the year.

Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Asia, shares that more than 90% of these transactions occurred in mature estates, with Kallang/Whampoa seeing the highest number of million-dollar flats changing hands at 156 units, followed by Toa Payoh (144 units) and Bukit Merah (135 units).

In terms of transaction volume, resale transactions in the HDB market fell 21.1% q-o-q from 8,142 units in 3Q2024 to 6,424 units in 4Q2024. Lee attributes this decline to seasonal factors such as the year-end holiday and festive season. He adds that the lower interest rate environment may have also encouraged some buyers to move to the private residential market or the Executive Condominium (EC) market.

Sandrasegeran explains that some prospective buyers may have also opted to ballot for a flat in the latest Build-to-Order (BTO) sales exercise, which took place in October 2024. This saw HDB launch a record 15 projects comprising 8,573 flats under the new location-based classification framework. For the first time, singles were also allowed to buy two-room flexi BTO flats in all locations.

Despite the decline in transaction volume in the last quarter of 2024, the overall resale transaction volume for the year increased by 8.4% y-o-y to 28,986 units, marking the largest number of yearly resale transactions since 2021, when 31,017 flats were sold.

According to transaction data compiled by Huttons Asia, Sengkang, Woodlands, Punggol, Tampines, and Yishun were the top five most popular HDB towns among buyers in 2024, accounting for around 35.9% of all HDB resales.

Looking ahead, approximately 6,976 flats are expected to reach the end of their MOP in 2025, representing a 41.6% decrease in new housing supply entering the secondary market compared to 2024. Sandrasegeran attributes this decline to the relatively fewer BTO flats that were completed in 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic.

In response, HDB plans to launch over 25,000 new flats across three BTO sales exercises in 2025, comprising 19,600 BTO flats and more than 5,500 flats under the Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) exercise. The next SBF exercise will take place concurrently with the upcoming BTO sales exercise in February, where 5,000 BTO flats in Kallang/Whampoa, Queenstown, Woodlands, and Yishun will be offered. About 4 in 10 of the 5,500 SBF flats that will be offered next month are already completed.

Sandrasegeran believes that the substantial rise in public housing supply aims to address the growing demand for housing. He also notes that SBF flats are popular among home seekers who prefer acquiring a brand-new, ready-to-move-in flat with shorter waiting times compared to the typical BTO process.

In addition, HDB plans to designate about 3,800 units of the 19,600 BTO flats planned for launch in 2025 as Shorter Waiting Time (SWT) flats, with wait times of less than three years.

Both Sandrasegeran and Lee predict positive price growth in the HDB market for 2025, with Sandrasegeran projecting a 3.5% to 5.5% increase and Lee projecting a more optimistic 5% to 8% increase.