Resale Flat Prices Rise 25 19Th Straight Quarter Hdb 4Q2024 Flash
On 2nd January, the Housing and Development Board (HDB) released their flash estimates, which showed that prices for resale flats had risen by 2.5% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in the fourth quarter of 2024. This is a slight decrease from the 2.7% q-o-q growth experienced in the previous quarter. Despite this, it marks the 19th consecutive quarter of price increases in the HDB resale segment.
According to Christine Sun, Chief Researcher and Strategist at OrangeTee Group, the flash estimates revealed that HDB resale prices had grown by 9.6% in 2024. This is double the 4.9% growth observed in 2023. However, it is still lower than the 10.4% increase in 2022 and the 12.7% growth in 2021.
Data from HDB caveats downloaded from data.gov.sg as of 8:15am on 2nd January showed that there was a slowdown in price growth for some flat types, notes OrangeTee. For instance, the median price of four-room flats saw a q-o-q increase of 2.5% in the fourth quarter of 2024. This is a slower pace than the 3.4% growth observed in the third quarter of 2024.
Similarly, two-room flats had a q-o-q increase of 2% in the fourth quarter of 2024, which is slower than the 3.9% growth in the third quarter of 2024. The prices of executive flats registered a 1.2% q-o-q increase in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to 1.7% in the previous quarter.
In contrast, prices for five-room flats grew by 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024, faster than the 1.2% increase observed in the third quarter of 2024.
Resale volume down 3.6% y-o-y in 4Q2024
The number of resale transactions decreased by 3.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 6,314 units in the fourth quarter of 2024 from 6,547 transactions in the corresponding period in 2023. It was down by 22.5% q-o-q from 8,142 units in the third quarter of 2024.
Sun attributes the decline in HDB resale transactions primarily to HDB launching more than 8,500 new flats in the October Build-to-Order (BTO) exercise, with many units located in prime and desirable locations. “The attractive features of these flats, such as scenic views and proximity to MRT stations, diverted demand away from the resale market towards the BTO market,” she adds.
Sales also slowed during the seasonal year-end school holidays, when many Singaporeans tend to travel abroad. Consequently, house viewings and sales activities typically decrease during this period.
However, according to Wong Siew Ying, Head of Research and Content at PropNex, the slower pace of growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 can be attributed to government intervention in August 2024, when the loan-to-value (LTV) limit for HDB loans was reduced by five percentage points to 75%. “Based on the weaker sales and slower growth in the HDB resale price index in the fourth quarter of 2024, it is likely that the August 2024 measures are taking effect in the market,” says Wong. “Besides, the lower resale volume during the quarter may have also had an impact on prices.”
Data from PropNex Research and data.gov.sg (retrieved on 31st December 2024) showed that the total resale volume in 2024 was 28,876 units. This is an 8% increase from the 26,735 units recorded in the previous year and the 27,896 units in 2022. However, it is still lower than the peak of 31,017 units in 2021.
Decline in million-dollar flat transactions in 4Q2024
The decline in resale transactions in the fourth quarter of 2024 led to a decrease in the number of million-dollar flat transactions, with only 283 units recorded compared to 331 in the third quarter of 2024. Despite the decrease, the total number of million-dollar transactions reached a record high of 1,033 units in 2024, notes Sun. “This figure is more than double the 469 million-dollar transactions recorded in the previous year,” she points out.
Toa Payoh town saw the highest number of million-dollar resale flat deals in the fourth quarter of 2024, with 58 such transactions, 20 of which were for four- and five-room units at Alkaff Vista in Bidadari Park Drive. These units had recently crossed the five-year minimum occupation period (MOP).
“The new classification of Plus and Prime classification BTO flats may have driven more homebuyers to seek out HDB resale homes in central locations,” says Eugene Lim, Key Executive Officer of ERA Singapore. “These buyers were unwilling to accept the resale restrictions such as a 10-year MOP, rental restrictions after MOP, subsidy clawback upon resale, and resale income cap on future buyers.”
HDB resale prices expected to continue rising in 2025, but at a slower rate
According to OrangeTee, HDB resale prices are expected to continue rising in 2025, but at a slower rate than in previous years. “In many areas, prices have already reached new highs, creating affordability concerns for many potential buyers,” adds Sun.
Furthermore, Sun adds that the ongoing supply of BTO flats is expected to help moderate price growth in the secondary market. However, the degree of price stabilisation will depend on the number of BTO flats that the government plans to release in the upcoming years.
In February 2025, HDB will launch its largest sale of balance flats (SBF) exercise, offering more than 5,500 flats across various towns, says Lee Sze Teck, Senior Director of Data Analytics at Huttons Asia. “Some prospective resale flat buyers have decided to wait to try their luck,” he adds.
Price growth, transaction volume expected to moderate in 2025
ERA expects resale prices to grow at a more measured pace in 2025 due to a reduced supply of flats reaching MOP, which has been a key driver of price growth in recent years, notes Lim. Hence, he anticipates a 3% to 6% growth in HDB resale prices, with 26,000 to 27,000 resale units changing hands by the end of 2025.
PropNex expects the HDB resale market to perform well in 2025, underpinned by healthy housing demand and fewer MOP flats coming on – possibly keeping resale prices firm, says Wong. “Resale flats will continue to enjoy strong buying interest from those with more pressing housing needs, applicants who cannot secure a BTO flat, and families with a tighter housing budget.”
Wong projects that HDB resale flat prices may rise by 5% to 7% in 2025, supported by a resale volume forecast of 29,000 to 30,000 units.
The supply of BTO flats in 2025 will be further reduced to 17,290 units, which is about 12% lower than the supply in 2024, notes Huttons’ Lee. “As there is no upfront information on the BTO projects with a shorter waiting time, buyers are likely to go to the resale market,” he reckons.
Additionally, interest rates are expected to decrease in 2025, allowing buyers to take on a more sizeable loan amount to buy a new home. “Some buyers may set their sights on either an executive condo (EC) or a resale condo,” adds Lee. “The million-dollar flat market may stabilise in the range of 900 to 1,200 units in 2025.”
Huttons projects that HDB resale flat transactions will end the year at 26,000 to 28,000, with resale flat prices expected to grow at a slower pace of 5% to 8%.
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